At the closed Silene border crossing, where once bustling traffic flowed between Latvia and Belarus, Raimonds Kublickis, head of the State Border Guard (Valsts Robežsardze) in the Daugavpils region, explains the situation. Today, massive concrete blocks and anti-tank barriers made of metal secure the crossing. His words leave no doubt about the gravity of the situation: "The State Border Guard of Latvia is confronted not only with an immigration crisis but with hybrid warfare waged by the Belarusian regime."
Latvia bears an enormous responsibility. In the east of the country, it secures over 455 kilometers of the EU's external border and the Schengen Area – simultaneously forming NATO's eastern flank. Kublickis describes the current situation as follows: "The section of the border with Russia is comparatively quiet, but along the 172 kilometers bordering Belarus, we are quite busy."
The Calculated Provocation from Minsk
Despite massive expansion efforts by the Latvian Border Guard, on average, nearly a hundred people were trying to cross illegally from Belarus into Latvia every day. Raimonds Kublickis makes it clear: "These are not refugees fleeing war and persecution. It's a controlled operation to impact the EU." In 2025 the majority of these individuals come predominantly from African countries and the Middle East. Belarus recruits these people, facilitates their flights to Minsk, and organizes bus transport to the EU border.
With these hybrid attacks, Belarus is retaliating for the sanctions imposed. The EU began imposing sanctions on Belarus as early as 2020 in response to the manipulated presidential elections and the subsequent brutal suppression of peaceful protests. In 2021, further sanctions followed after a Ryanair plane was forced to land in Minsk and Belarusian opposition figure Roman Protassevich was arrested. Since then, the Lukashenko regime has used "illegal migration" to Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia as a deliberate and targeted weapon.
The numbers speak for themselves: "Since 2021, we have prevented over 37,000 people from trying to enter our country illegally through the green border “, reports Kublickis. For him, it's an important distinction that border crossings are prevented, not that people are sent or pushed back across the border. "Our highest number so far was in 2023 with 14,000 people. While the numbers decreased somewhat in 2024, there's no reason to sound the all-clear: This year, we've already had more than 7,800 people at our border" (as of late July). Along the entire Belarusian border with the EU, approximately 200 illegal border crossings are registered daily.
Raimonds Kublickis underscores the absurdity of the situation: "The border area in Belarus is actually a restricted zone. People aren't even supposed to be there." Nevertheless, his colleagues repeatedly encounter groups near the border. They try to address the people in various languages and explain that crossing this border is illegal. But often, the migrants wear masks to remain unidentifiable and flee without responding. Belarusian authorities are also informed by phone. "But there is no answer, and nothing happens."
Cat and Mouse at the Border
Kublickis describes the situation as a "cat-and-mouse game": "Apparently, the groups receive information about when we have just controlled a section. We have often noticed that border crossings occur afterwards." Again and again, the border fence is damaged to create loopholes – acts that require special tools. This is further evidence that this form of migration is not only tolerated but in one or another way supported by the Belarusian state. Kublickis also reports isolated attacks on Latvian Border Guard personnel by "migrants" from Belarus.
"We have observed that there is almost always a leading person in every group of migrants," says Kublickis. "This person usually speaks Russian, typically carries a GPS device, and does not seem to be part of the group. But as long as we can only observe this and not prove it, we are not allowed to arrest such smugglers." The intention is clear: the Belarusian regime wants to destabilize the EU.
Asylum Rights Under Pressure
Since 2021, people at the Latvian-Belarusian border have de facto been unable to apply for asylum. They are pushed back across the border into Belarus. This is the result of an "emergency situation" that has been continuously extended ever since. The Latvian state has also faced criticism for this approach. These are pushbacks, which are controversial under international law. For the border guards, this procedure is about prevention and protecting state borders. "The number of people who requested asylum here at the border was low before 2021," Raimonds Kublickis recalls. "And also the number of people illegally present in the border area was about 20 annually – a strong contrast to today."
Raimonds Kublickis emphasizes the overarching mission: "It is a hybrid war. We protect our borders, and Ukraine defends its land and its freedom." It is the duty of the Border Guard to protect Latvia and, by extension, the entire EU.
Part of the Border Guard's duties also includes monitoring news and media in Belarus. "The propaganda against the EU and the border guards of European countries is massive. They even show videos created with artificial intelligence of injured and bleeding refugees, caused by the border guards of the European neighboring states," reports Kublickis. He is considering whether it would be beneficial for the West to provide more information in Belarus about the actual situation.
Latvia has already erected over 142 kilometers of an approximately 3.50-meter-high fence with barbed wire along the state border with Belarus. Alongside it runs a patrol track, allowing quick access to every section. "Even the swampy and boggy areas are already protected by a fence," Kublickis explains. The set up of the video surveillance system and other technological solution is expected to be ready until the end of 2026.
Where the border runs through lakes and rivers, no fence is currently planned. Raimonds Kublickis points to a huge lake, into which the fence extends for a few more meters. "The border runs through the lake", he explains, but also emphasizes that currently in this situation no one is allowed to be there – not even for fishing. With various methods of technical surveillance, they can control this area as well.
The border fortification costs the Latvian state a lot of money and requires great effort. "Official assessments done by Schengen evaluation teams confirm that we are doing a good job here – not only for ourselves but for all of Europe."
The Silene border crossing, once the largest between the EU and Belarus, was closed in 2023. Daily, around 400 cars, 200 trucks, and 1,000 people used this crossing. Raimonds Kublickis recalls the good cooperation with the Belarusian border authorities: ‘We had regular meetings and even talked about joint border surveillance. From one day to the next, that changed completely.‘
