Are the EU's sanctions and restrictive visa policies driving Belarusian society into dependence on Moscow? Andrei Vazyanau, an assistant professor at European Humanitarian University in Vilnius, has a clear opinion on the matter: Belarusian society is experiencing the effects of a resurgent Iron Curtain between the West and Russia most acutely. He advocates for a separate approach to sanctions for Russia and Belarus, and for supporting Belarusian civil society in its struggle for independence and sovereignty.
Minsk and Vilnius are only 200 kilometers apart, connected by well-maintained roads and until 2020 also by train. Until 2020, people from Belarus received the most Schengen visas per capita in the world. This changed after Alexander Lukashenko's fraudulent presidential election and the subsequent violent suppression of mass protests. Further sanctions followed when Russian troops invaded Ukraine via Belarusian territory.
Simultaneously, an estimated 300,000 to 500,000 people left the country fearing persecution. "This is roughly the same number of people who have left Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. But Belarus's population is 16 times smaller," the scientist notes, putting the figures into perspective.
This large wave of emigration has separated many families, as those who have fled generally cannot return to Belarus. To visit their relatives in the EU, family members remaining in Belarus apply for a Schengen visa. "But it is much more difficult for Belarusians to get a Schengen visa than for Russians," according to his research.
Andrei Vazyanau does not know the exact reason for this. He suspects it's less of a strategic decision and more a consequence of Belarus's diplomatic isolation since 2020. "This policy, however, supports Russia," the scientist explains. Since it is often easier to get a Schengen visa in Russia, many Belarusians travel there to apply. They usually receive it within a few days and stay in Russia for that period and spend money there.
Vazyanau reports cases where staff at EU embassies in Minsk have themselves recommended that applicants get a visa in Russia. "At embassies in Belarus, it often takes up to a year, and at the German embassy, up to a year and a half, for people to get a visa to visit their families in an EU country." According to Vazyanau, these long processing times also affect activist networking and cultural exchange between the EU and Belarus.
For example, a grassroot activist invited to a conference in Finland had to travel to St. Petersburg to get a visa. The EU, which covers the travel costs for such projects, also ended up paying for his stay in Russia. "This is not an isolated case," Vazyanau emphasizes. "With this policy, the EU countries' embassies in Minsk are supporting the Russian economy and additionally exposing people from Belarus to Russian propaganda."
While it is difficult for Belarusians to travel to the EU, Lukashenko has opened his country to EU citizens who can travel to Belarus visa-free. He uses this fact for his propaganda, portraying Belarus as an open country while the West is closing itself off.
Andrei Vazyanau, a native of Ukraine, lived and worked in Belarus for many years until he had to leave the country for fear of repression because he had supported an opposing candidate to Lukashenko during the presidential election campaign. After the rigged elections, he took part in street protests and published texts in the media that were critical of Belarusian regime.
His Belarusian partner cannot return home to visit the family, similarly to many other people, whose parents remain in Belarus and have to apply for a Schengen visa to be able to see their children. Andrei Vazyanau stresses how important this personal contact is: "Belarussians who visit their families in EU countries get to know life in a free society. They more easily get access to different information than the propaganda news in their own country." He is convinced that more travelers to the EU would significantly improve the image of the EU and Western democracy in Belarusian society and provide an alternative to strengthening ties with Russia. Given the large number of family members living abroad in the EU, this is a factor not to be underestimated.
While people wait for their EU visas, politically motivated arrests and other repressions are ongoing daily in Belarus. However, many people do not see the visa restrictions as a consequence of the Russian attack on Ukraine. Instead, they view them as a lingering effect of the events of 2020. The blame for this is placed on the Belarusian democratic forces, as they allegedly failed to represent the interests of the population. According to scholars, there is a risk that the pro-democracy movement of 2020 and its ideas will lose credibility as a result.
Belarusian society is divided on many issues, including attitudes toward Lukashenko. However, according to surveys, there is agreement on two points: "They do not want to become part of Russia, and they do not want to wage war against Ukraine," says Andrei Vazyanau.
The anthropologist points out: "The problem for the Belarusian population is not the physical border with the EU." Most people find erecting the fence in response to organized irregular migration acceptable. But what concerns the Belarusians public more is how the EU makes it so difficult for them to enter. The situation is grotesque: during the Cold War, it was their own country, the Soviet Union, that refused to issue travel documents to them. Today, it is the EU that is severely restricting travel through its sanctions policy.
Andrei Vazyanau’s research makes it clear: If the EU wants to strengthen its own influence and visibility in Belarus, it should consider a different, more liberal visa policy for Belarusian citizens.
Andrei Vazyanau is an assistant professor at Department of Social Sciences at the European Humanities University (EHU) in Vilnius. The interview was conducted as an online meeting because he was on vacation when I was in Vilnius. The EHU was founded in Minsk in 1992 but had to relocate to Vilnius in 2005 due to increasing repression.
